As June 2025 comes to a close, the global phosphate rock market, despite the pressure of increasing production costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to show signs of stability, with slight shifts in freight rates, steady FOB prices across several regions, and dynamic trade flows, particularly out of Morocco.
Morocco: Lower Freight Rates and Strong Phosphate Rock
This week, freight indications for 30,000-ton phosphate rock shipments from Morocco declined by around $1/ton to both Brazil and the United States. Nevertheless, Moroccan phosphate exports rose significantly in the first four months of 2025, reaching 1.94 million metric tons, up by 240,000 tons year-on-year.
Much of this growth was driven by increased shipments to:
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Mexico: 297,000 tons
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Lebanon: 164,000 tons
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Lithuania: 106,000 tons
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Poland: 74,000 tons
Conversely, exports to Morocco’s largest customer, India, fell by just over 100,000 tons, totaling 518,000 tons during the same period.
Jordan: Phosphate Rock Price Stability
In Jordan, freight rates have softened slightly following the tentative ceasefire declared earlier this week. While this de-escalation is positive, a full return to pre-conflict market conditions remains uncertain due to the fragile geopolitical climate.
A freight enquiry for 40–75,000 tons of phosphate rock from Aqaba to Gresik, Indonesia (loading window: 4–10 July) is currently active. Meanwhile, the market is working on a 20,000 MT Jordanian cargo, 64–66% BPL, for delivery in late July.
Despite earlier speculation of a Q3 price hike, FOB Jordan prices have remained stable, providing certainty to regional buyers.
Egypt: No Phosphate Rock Price Change as Tensions Persist
In Egypt, phosphate rock prices have remained unchanged compared to last month. The market remains quiet due to heightened tensions in the region, particularly between Iran and Israel, and a lack of concluded new deals.
However, multiple freight enquiries this week signal continued interest from international buyers:
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50,000 tons from Safaga, loading 25–30 June to Hazira or Vizag
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56–62,000 tons from Hamrawein, loading 1–5 July to West Coast India
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25–33,000 tons from Adabiya or Safaga, loading 23 June–3 July to Dumai or Gresik
Currently, an Egyptian phosphate rock cargo (approx. 30% P₂O₅) of 30,000 MT is available for delivery.
Freight Market Overview – Key Routes
Freight rates across key regional routes show slight adjustments:
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Red Sea to Pakistan/India: $23–24/ton
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Red Sea to Persian Gulf: $26–27/ton
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Morocco to Brazil/US: Down by $1/ton this week
These trends reflect softening freight pressure amid tentative market optimism in some regions.
Asian Demand Focuses on Lower-Grade Rock
Demand for phosphate rock in Southeast Asia continues, with particular interest in lower- and mid-grade rock. Current market movements include:
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Indonesia: Enquiry for 50,000 MT of 26% P₂O₅ rock
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Vietnam: Interest in 27%+ P₂O₅, volumes between 50,000–100,000 MT
These enquiries highlight the growing appetite for alternative sourcing amid regional price shifts.
Q2 2025 Price Trends: Key Market Comparisons
Phosphate rock prices showed mixed trends in Q2 2025. Indian CFR prices climbed sharply, while FOB prices from Algeria and Morocco dipped slightly.
| Origin | Grade | Q2 2025 ($/MT) | Q1 2025 ($/MT) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOB Jordan | 68–70% BPL | 135–152 | 120–140 | ▲ $13.5 |
| CFR India | 66–68% BPL | 160–180 | 124–158 | ▲ $29.0 |
| CFR India | 68–70% BPL | 180–205 | 158–188 | ▲ $19.5 |
| CFR India | 70–72% BPL | 205–215 | 148–165 | ▲ $3.0 |
| FOB Morocco | 70–72% BPL | 169–263 | 165–288 | ▼ $10.5 |
| FOB Algeria | 65–68% BPL | 98–115 | 105–130 | ▼ $11.0 |
| FOB Egypt | 66% BPL | 96–115 | 96–115 | No change |
| FOB Egypt | 57–61% BPL | 45–89 | 45–89 | No change |
| CFR China | 26–27% P₂O₅ | 80–85 | 80–85 | No change |
| CFR Southeast Asia | 57–61% BPL | 75–108 | – | New range |
Market Outlook for Q3 2025
As we approach Q3, the global phosphate rock market remains cautiously optimistic. Morocco continues to lead in volume and pricing diversity, while supply from Egypt and Jordan is constrained by political and logistical conditions.
Buyers in India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America should closely monitor freight and price trends, as market conditions in the coming weeks may shift with new tenders and potential price revisions.
Are you an importer or trader? Now may be an opportune time to secure supply at stable pricing levels before potential Q3 adjustments. Stay tuned for weekly updates and freight developments.
