Urea Market Update – 1st Half December 2024

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The global urea market is experiencing significant developments as 2024 approaches. With India issuing a major procurement tender and supply constraints emerging in key regions, stakeholders are navigating a complex and evolving landscape. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the latest trends, regional insights, and future outlook for the urea market.

India’s NFL Tender: Driving Global Demand

India’s National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) has issued a tender to procure 1.5 million tons of urea, requiring shipments by February 2025. This tender has significantly influenced global pricing:

  • Egypt FOB: Prices rose to $371-380/t.
  • Middle East FOB: Increased to $345-355/t.
  • Brazil CFR: Firmed to $340-353/t.

India’s strategic role in global procurement drives demand and influences price stability across major exporting regions.

Regional Trends and Supply Constraints

The tender’s impact is amplified by supply challenges in key regions:

  • Iran: Urea production has dropped below 30% capacity due to domestic gas shortages, as resources are redirected to meet winter heating needs. FOB prices increased to $299-307/t, reflecting tight supply.
  • Brazil: Despite high inventory levels tempering domestic demand, granular urea prices firmed to $340-353/t CFR, influenced by global upward trends.
  • China: Urea exports remain constrained, with domestic priorities expected to restrict international shipments until at least mid-2025.

Ammonium Sulphate Stability

Ammonium sulphate prices have remained stable to slightly firmer, supported by limited availability and regional demand increases:

  • Europe FOB: Prices are held at €185/t for standard-grade ammonium sulphate.

This stability highlights ammonium sulphate’s role as a complementary nitrogen source amid fluctuating urea market dynamics.

Market Outlook for the Next 30-60 Days

The global urea market is expected to remain influenced by:

  1. India’s Procurement Strategy: The NFL tender is likely to set the tone for global urea prices into early 2025, sustaining strong international demand.
  2. Regional Supply Constraints: Reduced production in Iran and limited inventories in key markets will continue to tighten global availability.
  3. Producers’ Opportunities: Middle Eastern suppliers and other exporting regions are well-positioned to benefit from sustained buyer interest.

Strategic Takeaways for Stakeholders

As the market evolves, stakeholders must consider:

  • Proactive Procurement: Monitoring India’s tender activity and securing supplies early to mitigate price volatility.
  • Regional Supply Trends: Navigating production constraints in Iran and export limitations in China to ensure reliable sourcing.

EGT Fertilizer: Your Trusted Partner in Urea Supply

At EGT Fertilizer, we specialize in providing high-quality urea and related products to meet your operational needs. With our expertise and extensive network, we deliver reliable supply solutions to help you navigate dynamic market conditions effectively.

 

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